The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters in Kentucky chose eight representatives to the Electoral College, or electors, who voted for president and vice president.
Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.22% margin of victory with 57.40% of the vote. Prior to the election, all seventeen news organizations considered it a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. Hillary Clinton had led McCain in hypothetical polls of the state during the Democratic primaries, but once Barack Obama secured the Democratic nomination Kentucky was reclassified as safe for the GOP. Obama did, however, improve on John Kerry's performance by two points. This was the first time since 1960 that Kentucky did not vote for the winning candidate in a presidential election.
This was the first time ever that Floyd County or Knott County voted for the Republican candidate, and the first time since 1908 that Breathitt County voted for the Republican candidate. Obama became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying numerous historically Democratic counties in the state, primarily in the Eastern Coalfield, Bluegrass, and Jackson Purchase regions. As of 2024, this remains the last time that a Democratic presidential nominee has won over 40% of the vote in Kentucky, and the last election in which Rowan County, Hancock County, Menifee County, Wolfe County, or Henderson County voted for the Democratic candidate.
Primaries 2008 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary 2008 Kentucky Republican presidential primary
Campaign
Predictions Sixteen news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. Their last predictions before election day were:
+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportCook Political ReportThe TakeawayElectoral-vote.comWashington PostBased on TakeawayPoliticoRealClearPoliticsFiveThirtyEightCQ PoliticsThe New York TimesCNNNPRMSNBCFox NewsAssociated PressRasmussen Reports
Polling
McCain won every pre-election poll against Obama, almost all of them by a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final three polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.
Fundraising John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.
Advertising and visits Obama spent $183,738, while a conservative interest group spent just $212. Each ticket visited the state once.
Analysis
Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Southerners, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago. (Similar socio-cultural dynamics existed in other Southern and Appalachian states with a large ancestral Democratic base, such as Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas.)
In the 2008 primary, exit polls conducted found that 30 percent of Clinton supporters opted not to vote for Obama in the general election, 40% would vote McCain and the rest would support Obama in the general election. Several counties in the southeastern part of the state swung Republican and went to McCain as solidly Democratic Floyd and Knott counties voted Republican for the first time ever, and Breathitt County voted Republican for the first time since 1908. Obama decided to not spend campaign funds on Kentucky and instead went to more viable battleground states like North Carolina and Indiana instead. McCain won Kentucky by a margin of 16.22 points on election day and performed slightly worse than George Bush in 2004. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in big cities and urban areas while McCain improved upon Bush in rural areas. Kentucky was the first state called for either candidate.
At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also served as Senate Minority Leader at the time, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.
Results United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.40%8 Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.17% 0 Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0 Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0 Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0 Totals 1,826,508 100.00% 8 Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%
By county CountyJohn McCainRepublicanBarack ObamaDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adair5,51275.53%1,66822.86%1181.61%3,84452.67%7,298Allen5,25871.15%2,02427.39%1081.46%3,23443.76%7,390Anderson6,88565.25%3,46232.81%2051.94%3,42332.44%10,552Ballard2,53762.49%1,42735.15%962.36%1,11027.34%4,060Barren11,13366.24%5,43432.33%2401.43%5,69933.91%16,807Bath2,23449.17%2,21048.65%992.18%240.52%4,543Bell6,68169.61%2,78228.99%1351.41%3,89940.62%9,598Boone33,81266.59%16,29232.09%6701.32%17,52034.50%50,774Bourbon4,82057.86%3,38540.64%1251.50%1,43517.22%8,330Boyd11,43055.30%8,88642.99%3541.71%2,54412.31%20,670Boyle7,70160.95%4,76937.74%1651.30%2,93223.21%12,635Bracken2,06660.78%1,24136.51%922.71%82524.27%3,399Breathitt2,67153.10%2,20543.84%1543.06%4669.26%5,030Breckinridge5,28161.97%3,11036.49%1311.54%2,17125.48%8,522Bullitt20,10265.42%10,17733.12%4471.45%9,92532.30%30,726Butler3,69669.64%1,55529.30%561.06%2,14140.34%5,307Caldwell3,86662.36%2,21235.68%1211.95%1,65426.68%6,199Calloway8,99158.37%6,16540.02%2481.61%2,82618.35%15,404Campbell24,04659.67%15,62238.77%6291.56%8,42420.90%40,297Carlisle1,69964.92%87933.59%391.49%82031.33%2,617Carroll2,03252.99%1,71644.75%872.27%3168.24%3,835Carter5,25253.52%4,31643.98%2452.50%9369.54%9,813Casey4,67978.55%1,21920.46%590.99%3,46058.09%5,957Christian13,69960.14%8,88038.98%1990.87%4,81921.16%22,778Clark9,66461.84%5,74936.79%2151.38%3,91525.05%15,628Clay5,71077.54%1,55221.08%1021.38%4,15856.46%7,364Clinton3,36680.68%76118.24%451.08%2,60562.44%4,172Crittenden2,60466.26%1,25431.91%721.83%1,35034.35%3,930Cumberland2,05673.51%69724.92%441.57%1,35948.59%2,797Daviess23,69254.31%19,28244.20%6481.49%4,41010.11%43,622Edmonson3,56267.59%1,65231.35%561.06%1,91036.24%5,270Elliott90235.86%1,53561.03%783.11%-633-25.17%2,515Estill3,68569.35%1,55529.26%741.39%2,13040.09%5,314Fayette59,88446.91%66,04251.74%1,7221.36%-6,158-4.83%127,648Fleming3,43258.85%2,27939.08%1212.07%1,15319.77%5,832Floyd7,74149.43%7,53048.09%3882.48%2111.34%15,659Franklin11,91149.47%11,76748.87%4011.67%1440.60%24,079Fulton1,53054.16%1,23843.82%572.02%29210.34%2,825Gallatin1,84057.63%1,27840.03%752.35%56217.60%3,193Garrard5,11870.98%2,01227.91%801.11%3,10643.07%7,210Grant5,51062.94%3,11235.55%1321.50%2,39827.39%8,754Graves10,05662.25%5,84336.17%2561.58%4,21326.08%16,155Grayson6,60566.70%3,15431.85%1441.45%3,45134.85%9,903Green3,78574.52%1,20423.71%901.77%2,58150.81%5,079Greenup8,84956.01%6,62141.91%3282.08%2,22814.10%15,798Hancock1,92846.53%2,13551.52%811.95%-207-4.99%4,144Hardin23,89659.75%15,65039.13%4441.11%8,24620.62%39,990Harlan7,16572.27%2,58626.08%1631.64%4,57946.19%9,914Harrison4,52059.55%2,91638.42%1542.03%1,60421.13%7,590Hart4,39764.49%2,29033.59%1311.92%2,10730.90%6,818Henderson9,52347.95%10,04950.60%2891.46%-526-2.65%19,861Henry4,08158.98%2,72539.38%1131.63%1,35619.60%6,919Hickman1,40662.49%81236.09%321.42%59426.40%2,250Hopkins11,91661.59%7,10436.72%3281.70%4,81224.87%19,348Jackson4,40784.36%74314.22%741.42%3,66470.14%5,224Jefferson153,95743.38%196,43555.34%4,5441.28%-42,478-11.96%354,936Jessamine13,71167.83%6,23630.85%2671.32%7,47536.98%20,214Johnson5,94869.84%2,40728.26%1621.90%3,54141.58%8,517Kenton40,71459.69%26,48038.82%1,0191.49%14,23420.87%68,213Knott3,07052.75%2,61244.88%1382.37%4587.87%5,820Knox8,15071.56%3,07426.99%1651.61%5,07644.57%11,389LaRue4,15367.22%1,91330.96%1121.81%2,24036.26%6,178Laurel17,66078.49%4,61820.52%2220.99%13,04257.97%22,500Lawrence3,50362.01%2,03636.04%1101.95%1,46725.97%5,649Lee1,97871.33%75227.12%431.55%1,22644.21%2,773Leslie3,57481.28%76617.42%571.30%2,80863.86%4,397Letcher5,36765.17%2,62331.85%2452.98%2,74433.32%8,235Lewis3,21367.06%1,51031.52%681.42%1,70335.54%4,791Lincoln6,27368.55%2,75230.07%1261.38%3,52138.48%9,151Livingston2,89062.92%1,62235.31%811.77%1,26827.61%4,593Logan6,92563.59%3,81135.00%1541.41%3,11428.59%10,890Lyon2,22057.59%1,57740.91%581.50%64316.68%3,855McCracken19,04361.92%11,28536.69%4261.39%7,75825.23%30,754McCreary4,07875.42%1,25823.27%711.33%2,82052.15%5,407McLean2,38653.96%1,96344.39%731.65%4239.57%4,422Madison19,69460.53%12,39238.09%4511.38%7,30222.44%32,537Magoffin2,43452.33%2,10545.26%1122.41%3297.07%4,651Marion3,84250.45%3,59647.22%1772.32%2463.23%7,615Marshall9,51261.42%5,68336.70%2921.88%3,82924.72%15,487Martin2,82476.49%80821.89%601.62%2,01654.60%3,692Mason4,10257.60%2,89140.60%1281.80%1,31017.00%7,121Meade6,69159.71%4,34338.76%1721.53%2,34820.95%11,206Menifee1,15546.40%1,27651.27%582.33%-121-4.87%2,489Mercer6,78167.41%3,15931.40%1201.19%3,62236.01%10,060Metcalfe2,73465.11%1,35032.15%1152.74%1,38432.96%4,199Monroe3,53775.82%1,06722.87%611.31%2,47052.95%4,665Montgomery5,94757.56%4,23440.98%1501.45%1,71316.58%10,331Morgan2,39654.72%1,87942.91%1042.37%51711.81%4,379Muhlenberg6,44750.02%6,22148.27%2211.71%2261.75%12,889Nelson10,13955.87%7,65442.18%3531.95%2,48513.69%18,146Nicholas1,63455.02%1,27242.83%642.15%36212.19%2,970Ohio5,68757.22%4,05940.84%1921.94%3,84416.38%9,938Oldham18,99764.80%10,00034.11%3191.09%8,99730.69%29,316Owen2,96962.49%1,69435.66%881.85%1,27526.83%4,751Owsley1,27975.86%38122.60%261.54%89853.26%1,686Pendleton3,67663.36%2,02734.94%991.70%1,64928.42%5,802Perry6,76265.18%3,44433.20%1691.62%3,31831.98%10,375Pike12,65555.89%9,52542.07%4632.04%3,13013.82%22,643Powell2,83757.06%2,06541.53%701.41%77215.53%4,972Pulaski19,86277.09%5,59021.70%3141.21%14,27255.39%25,766Robertson53352.51%45144.43%313.05%828.08%1,015Rockcastle4,75775.82%1,41022.47%1071.71%3,34753.35%6,274Rowan3,90747.92%4,07449.96%1732.12%-167-2.04%8,154Russell5,77977.31%1,56920.99%1271.70%4,21056.32%7,475Scott11,78259.72%7,71239.09%2361.19%4,07020.63%19,730Shelby11,45161.76%6,87137.06%2181.18%4,58024.70%18,540Simpson4,43760.71%2,77537.97%971.32%1,66222.74%7,309Spencer5,37866.82%2,51931.30%1521.88%2,85935.52%8,049Taylor7,56869.69%3,16529.14%1271.17%4,40340.55%10,860Todd3,33667.52%1,54331.23%621.25%1,79336.29%4,941Trigg4,18964.18%2,24634.41%921.41%1,94329.77%6,527Trimble2,23958.74%1,48438.93%892.33%75519.81%3,812Union3,12051.71%2,80446.47%1101.82%3165.24%6,034Warren25,99358.88%17,66940.02%4831.10%8,32418.86%44,145Washington3,30562.65%1,89035.83%801.52%1,41526.82%5,275Wayne4,86867.65%2,20130.59%1271.76%2,66737.06%7,196Webster3,03754.82%2,39043.14%1132.04%64711.68%5,540Whitley10,01573.08%3,48425.42%2051.50%6,53147.66%13,704Wolfe1,40847.44%1,49350.30%672.26%-85-2.86%2,968Woodford7,13057.98%5,02740.88%1401.14%2,10317.10%12,297Totals1,048,46257.37%751,98541.15%27,1401.49%296,47716.22%1,827,587
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Fayette (largest municipality: Lexington) Hancock (largest municipality: Hawesville) Henderson (largest municipality: Henderson)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville) Breathitt (largest municipality: Jackson) Carter (largest municipality: Grayson) Floyd (largest municipality: Prestonburg) Knott (largest municipality: Hindman) Magoffin (largest municipality: Salyersville) Pike (largest municipality: Pikeville)
By congressional district McCain carried five of the state's six congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.