2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.

Primaries were held on September 14. Incumbent Senator Judd Gregg (R) retired instead of seeking a fourth term, and was succeeded by Kelly Ayotte, who won the open seat by over 23 points. This is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire. This was also the first open seat election in the state since 1992. With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen serving in the state's other Senate seat, New Hampshire became the first state in the union to be represented in the Senate simultaneously by two women of opposite parties.

Background Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010. New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce. New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010. Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.

On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama. Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.

On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.

Republican primary

Candidates Kelly Ayotte, former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Alciere, state representative Gerard Beloin Jim Bender, businessman Bill Binnie, businessman Dennis Lamare Ovide Lamontagne, 1992 congressional candidate and 1996 gubernatorial nominee; chairman of 2004 platform committee

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Dates administered Kelly Ayotte Jim Bender Bill Binnie Ovide Lamontagne Undecided/otherTarrance GroupTarrance Group January 13–14, 2010 43% 3% 5% 11% 37%Research 2000Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 36% –– 4% 27% 33%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 21, 2010 43% 11% 19% 5% 21%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies May 28, 2010 38% 4% 29% 9% 15%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 47% 6% 14% 8% 20%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies September 1, 2010 34% 13% 17% 21% 15%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 37% 12% 13% 30% 5%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies September 12, 2010 35% 10% 14% 31% 10%

Results

General election

Candidates Kelly Ayotte (R), former state Attorney General Ken Blevens (L), (campaign site , PVS) Chris Booth (I), (campaign site, PVS) Paul Hodes (D), U.S. Representative since 2007

Campaign Hodes called himself a fiscal conservative, which was mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes was criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act. Hodes criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million.

Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.

Debates October 11 in Henniker at New England College October 28 in Manchester

Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 26, 2010 Rothenberg October 22, 2010 RealClearPolitics October 26, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 21, 2010 CQ Politics October 26, 2010

Polling Poll source Kelly Ayotte (R) Paul Hodes (D) Other UndecidedGranite State PollGranite State Poll June 24 – July 1, 2009 558 ± 4.1% 39% 35% 2% 24%Research 2000Research 2000 July 13 – 15, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 39% 38% 2% 21%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 14, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 46% 38% 5% 12%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group September 30, 2009 566 ± 4.1% 41% 34% –– 25%Granite State PollGranite State Poll October 2, 2009 503 ± 4.4% 40% 33% 2% 25%American Research GroupAmerican Research Group December 29, 2009 566 ± 4.1% 43% 36% –– 21%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 40% 3% 8%Granite State PollGranite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010 500 ± 4.4% 41% 33% 1% 25%Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 46% 39% –– 11%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 46% 39% 3% 13%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 47% 37% 4% 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 35% 4% 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 1,474 ± 2.6% 47% 40% –– 13%Granite State PollGranite State Poll April 12–21, 2010 512 ± 4.4% 47% 32% –– 21%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 11, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 38% 3% 9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 37% 7% 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 45% 42% –– 13%WMUR Granite State PollWMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010 453 ± 4.4% 45% 37% 1% 17%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 38% 4% 6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 1,959 ± 2.2% 47% 43% –– 9%Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 44% 1% 4%American Research Group September 22–26, 2010 800 ± 3.5% 46% 32% 2% 20%American Research Group October 3–5, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% 4% 7%Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 44% 3% 2%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH October 7–12, 2010 709 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 1% 12%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 56% 41% 2% 1%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2010 1,308 ± 2.7% 56% 41% –– 3%WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 54% 36% 2% 8%WMUR/UNH October 31, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 55% 32% 2% 2%The ConcordThe Concord October 31, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 56% 32% 2% 4%

Poll Source DatesAdministered Error PaulHodes (D) JimBender (R) Other UndecidedWMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010 453 ± 4.4% 39% 36% -- 25%Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 43% 42% -- 16%Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 10% 8%Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% 39% 8% 13%Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010 512 ± 4.4% 37% 34% -- 29%Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 1474 ± 2.6% 43% 39% -- 18%Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010 500 ± 4.4% 36% 27% 2% 35%

Poll Source DatesAdministered Error PaulHodes (D) BillBinnie (R) Other UndecidedRasmussen Reports August 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 46% 8% 7%WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010 453 ± 4.4% 38% 41% -- 21%Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 41% 46% -- 13%Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 49% 7% 8%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 11, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 49% 6% 8%Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010 512 ± 4.4% 36% 38% -- 26%Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 1474 ± 2.6% 42% 45% -- 13%Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 49% 4% 10%Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 46% 4% 14%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% 42% 3% 13%Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 45% 35% -- 15%Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010 500 ± 4.4% 34% 30% 2% 33%Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 37% 5% 15%

Poll Source DatesAdministered Error PaulHodes (D) OvideLamontagne (R) Other UndecidedWMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010 453 ± 4.4% 42% 36% 1% 21%Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 43% 38% -- 18%Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 43% 9% 9%Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 38% 8% 11%Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010 512 ± 4.4% 36% 37% -- 26%Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 1474 ± 2.6% 44% 37% -- 19%Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 44% 7% 11%Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 42% 38% 5% 15%Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 44% 38% 4% 13%Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 46% 36% -- 13%Granite State Poll January 27 – February 3, 2010 500 ± 4.4% 38% 29% 2% 30%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 45% 38% 6% 11%American Research Group December 29, 2009 566 ± 4.1% 31% 37% -- 32%

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Kelly Ayotte (R) $4,403,599 $3,397,934 $1,005,664 $26,944 Paul Hodes (D) $4,596,642 $4,346,539 $248,003 $0 Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

By county 2010 Senate election results in New Hampshire (by county) County Kelly AyoteRepublican Paul HodesDemocratic Other votes # % # % # %Belknap 14,81765.86%6,96430.95%7173.19%Carroll 12,55062.08%7,01334.69%6523.23%Cheshire 13,07550.6%12,26046.94%7833.01%Coös 6,19658.45%4,06438.34%3413.21%Grafton 15,37249.03%15,03247.95%9483.03%Hillsborough 82,51163.33%43,92433.71%3,8612..97%Merrimack 31,45657.3%21,65539.45%1,7843.25%Rockingham 68,01763.86%35,00232.87%3,4833.26%Strafford 21,20455.49%15,69541.07%1,3133.44%Sullivan 8,02055.46%5,93641.05%5043.49%

References

External links New Hampshire State Board of Elections U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire at Project Vote Smart New Hampshire U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com Campaign contributions from Open Secrets 2010 New Hampshire Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com Election 2010: New Hampshire Senate from Rasmussen Reports 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race - Ayotte vs. Hodes from Real Clear Politics 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race from CQ Politics Race profile from The New York Times Official campaign websites (Archived)

Kelly Ayotte for U.S. Senate Jim Bender for U.S. Senate Bill Binnie for U.S. Senate