The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Former Representative Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.

This was one of the five Republican-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.

Republican primary

Background With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination. Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Candidate Rob Portman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget (2006–2007), former United States trade representative (2005–2006) and former U.S. representative of Ohio's 2nd congressional district (1993–2005)

Campaign After Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day. Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment. Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010.

Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead, leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.

Results

Democratic primary

Background Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich. Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate. Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.

Candidates Jennifer Brunner, secretary of state (2007–2011) Lee Fisher, lieutenant governor of Ohio (2007–2011), former attorney general of Ohio (1991–1995) and nominee for governor in 1998

Campaign On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher. Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.

Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.

Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.

Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.

Polling Poll source Jennifer Brunner Lee Fisher Other UndecidedQuinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University January 29 – February 2, 2009 492 ± 4.4% 16% 18% 14% 53%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University March 10–15, 2009 506 ± 4.4% 14% 18% 1% 46%Quinnipiac University April 28 – May 4, 2009 437 ± 4.7% 16% 20% 1% 59%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University June 26 – July 1, 2009 483 ± 4.5% 21% 24% 2% 51%Research 2000Research 2000 July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 17% 22% — 61%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 10–13, 2009 421 ± 4.8% 17% 26% 2% 55%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University November 5–9, 2009 394 ± 4.9% 22% 24% 1% 51%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University February 16–21, 2010 604 ± 4.0% 20% 29% 2% 48%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University March 25–28, 2010 978 ± 3.1% 26% 33% 1% 40%Research 2000Research 2000 April 5–7, 2010 400 ± 4.0% 26% 35% — 39%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University April 22–26, 2010 987 ± 3.1% 24% 41% 1% 34%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University April 27–29, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 27% 55% — 18%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University April 29 – May 2, 2010 980 ± 3.1% 23% 43% 1% 32%

Results

General election

Candidates Eric Deaton (Constitution Party) Lee Fisher (D), lieutenant governor, former Ohio sttorney general, former state senator, and former state representative Dan La Botz (Socialist Party), labor union activist, academic, journalist, and author Rob Portman (R), former U.S. congressman and cabinet member for George W. Bush Michael Pryce (Independent)

Campaign When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million. Originally, the election was seen as a toss-up, as Portman's experience in the Bush administration was considered a liability for him. Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher. However, Portman consistently led in fundraising and polling, particularly as Portman was unopposed in the Republican primary, while the Democratic primary between Fisher and Brunner was highly divisive.

Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.PolitiFact Lee Fisher hammers Rob Portman on record in Bush administration Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not other countries.Portman targets Fisher with claim that most jobs Ohio lost went to other states: PolitiFact Ohio cleveland.com Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.RealClearPolitics - Portman Hits Fisher on Jobs in New Ad

Debates Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.U.S. Senate candidates Rob Portman and Lee Fisher agree to debates in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo cleveland.com The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.

Predictions Source Ranking As of Cook Political Report October 26, 2010 Rothenberg October 22, 2010 RealClearPolitics October 26, 2010 Sabato's Crystal Ball October 21, 2010 CQ Politics October 26, 2010

Polling Poll source Lee Fisher (D) Rob Portman (R) Other Undecided Public Policy Polling (report) January 17–18, 2009 578 ± 4.1% 39% 41% — 20% Quinnipiac University (report) January 29 – February 2, 2009 1,127 ± 2.9% 42% 27% 1% 29% Quinnipiac University (report) March 10–15, 2009 1,299 ± 2.7% 41% 33% 1% 24% Quinnipiac University (report) April 28 – May 4, 2009 1,079 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26% Public Policy Polling (report) June 17–19, 2009 619 ± 3.9% 41% 32% — 27% Quinnipiac University (report) June 26 – July 1, 2009 1,259 ± 2.8% 37% 33% 2% 26% Research 2000 (report) July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 42% 35% — 23% Quinnipiac University (report) September 10–13, 2009 1,074 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 23, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 41% 6% 14% Quinnipiac University (report) November 5–9, 2009 1,123 ± 2.9% 36% 39% — 24% Rasmussen Reports (report) December 7, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 36% 38% 8% 18% Rasmussen Reports (report) January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 4% 14% Rasmussen Reports (report) February 5–6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 5% 13% Quinnipiac University (report) February 16–21, 2010 1,662 ± 2.4% 37% 40% 2% 21% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 44% 5% 12% Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–21, 2010 630 ± 3.9% 36% 41% — 23% Quinnipiac (report) March 23–29, 2010 1,526 ± 2.5% 41% 37% 1% 21% Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 4% 14% Research 2000 (report) April 5–7, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 43% 39% — 18% Quinnipiac Polling (report) April 21–26, 2010 1,568 ± 2.5% 40% 37% 1% 21% Rasmussen Reports (report) May 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 42% 4% 14% UC/The Ohio Poll (report) May 11–20, 2010 668 ± 3.8% 47% 46% — 6% Rasmussen Reports (report) June 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 43% 4% 10% Quinnipiac Polling (report) June 22–27, 2010 1,107 ± 3.0% 42% 40% 1% 17% Public Policy Polling (report) June 26–27, 2010 482 ± 4.5% 40% 38% –– 22% Rasmussen Reports (report) June 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 4% 13% Rasmussen Reports (report) July 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 45% 5% 11% Rasmussen Reports (report) August 2, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11% Reuters/Ipsos (report) August 6–8, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 36% 43% — 21% Rasmussen Reports (report) August 16, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 5% 13% Public Policy Polling (report) August 27–29, 2010 475 ± 4.5% 38% 45% — 18% Rasmussen Reports (report) August 30, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 44% 7% 11% The Columbus Dispatch (report) August 25 – September 3, 2010 1,622 ± 2.2% 37% 50% 3% 9% Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 11, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 41% 48% 3% 8% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 41% 49% 2% 8% CNN/Time Magazine (report) September 10–14, 2010 820 ± 3.5% 41% 52% 4% 2% SurveyUSA (report) September 14, 2010 1000 ± 4.0% 40% 49% 7% 4% Quinnipiac University (report) September 17, 2010 730 ± 3.6% 35% 55% — 1% Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) September 24, 2010 850 ± 4.0% 40% 55% — 5% Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 25, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 50% 3% 11% CBS/NY Times ) September 23–27, 2010 941 ± 3.0% 34% 45% — 18% Reuters/Ipsos report) September 23–25, 2010 440 ± 3.0% 37% 50% — 13% Rasmussen Reports (report) September 27, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 42% 51% 1% 6% Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 53% 2% 8% Quinnipiac University (report) September 29 – October 3, 2010 1,025 ± 3.1% 36% 55% — — Angus Reid Public Opinion () Oct. 5–8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 52% 6% — Rasmussen Reports (report) October 11, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 34% 57% 2% 7% University of Cincinnati (report) October 8–13, 2010 705 ± 3.7% 36% 58% 1% 6% Quinnipiac University (report) October 12–17, 2010 1,183 ± 2.8% 34% 55% 1% 10% University of Cincinnati (report) October 14–18, 2010 839 ± 3.3% 39% 58% 0% 3% CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 15–19, 2010 1,502 ± 2.5% 40% 55% 2% 3% Quinnipiac University (report) October 20, 2010 686 ± 2.5% 34% 55% — 2% Wilson Research Strategies (report) October 20–21, 2010 500 ± 3.0% 38% 49% — 8% SurveyUSA (report) October 22–26, 2010 950 ± 4.0% 37% 52% — 4% Rasmussen Reports (report) October 26, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 33% 57% 3% 7% Columbus Dispatch (report) October 20–29, 2010 1,445 ± 2.3% 40% 56% 0% 4% Quinnipiac University (report) October 25–30, 2010 848 ± 3.4% 37% 56% 1% 8% Angus Reid Public Opinion () October 27–29, 2010 460 ± 4.6% 40% 57% 3% — Public Policy Polling (report) October 28–30, 2010 1,356 ± 2.7% 39% 57% 0% 4% University of Cincinnati (report) October 27–31, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 60% 0% 1% University of Cincinnati (report) November 1, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 61% 0% 0%

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Rob Portman (R) $15,998,398 $10,493,211 $5,505,186 $0 Lee Fisher (D) $6,191,361 $5,882,729 $308,631 $0 Source: Federal Election Commission

Results Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Monroe (largest city: Woodsfield) Cuyahoga (largest city: Cleveland) Lucas (largest city: Toledo) Mahoning (largest city: Youngstown) Trumbull (largest city: Warren) Athens (largest city: Athens)

See also Ohio elections, 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio, 2010

References

External links Ohio Secretary of State - Elections U.S. Congress candidates for Ohio at Project Vote Smart