A major financial crisis took place in Iceland between 2008 and 2010. It involved the default of all three of the country's major privately owned commercial banks in late 2008, following problems in refinancing their short-term debt and a run on deposits in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Relative to the size of its economy, Iceland's systemic banking collapse was the largest of any country in economic history. The crisis led to a severe recession and the 2009 Icelandic financial crisis protests.
In the years preceding the crisis, three Icelandic banks, Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir, multiplied in size. This expansion was driven by ready access to credit in international financial markets, in particular money markets. As the 2008 financial crisis unfolded, investors perceived the Icelandic banks to be increasingly risky. Trust in the banks gradually faded, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Icelandic króna in 2008 and increased difficulties for the banks in rolling over their short-term debt. At the end of the second quarter of 2008, Iceland's external debt was 9.553 trillion Icelandic krónur (€50 billion), more than 7 times the GDP of Iceland in 2007. The assets of the three banks totaled 14.437 trillion krónur at the end of the second quarter 2008,Glitnir ISK 3,863 bn ; Landsbanki ISK 3,970 bn ; Kaupthing ISK 6,604 bn . The borrowings of the three banks at the same date were: Glitnir ISK 2,242 bn; Landsbanki ISK 1,220 bn; Kaupthing ISK 2,883 bn. equal to more than 11 times the national GDP. Due to the huge size of the Icelandic financial system in comparison with the Icelandic economy, the Central Bank of Iceland was unable to act as a lender of last resort during the crisis, further aggravating the mistrust in the banking system.
On 29 September 2008, it was announced that Glitnir would be nationalised. However, subsequent efforts to restore faith in the banking system failed. On 6 October, the Icelandic legislature instituted an emergency law which enabled the Financial Supervisory Authority (FME) to take control over financial institutions and made domestic deposits in the banks priority claims. In the following days, new banks were founded to take over the domestic operations of Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir. The old banks were put into receivership and liquidation, resulting in losses for their shareholders and foreign creditors. Outside Iceland, more than half a million depositors lost access to their accounts in foreign branches of Icelandic banks. This led to the 2008–2013 Icesave dispute, which ended with an EFTA Court ruling that Iceland was not obliged to repay Dutch and British depositors minimum deposit guarantees.
In an effort to stabilize the situation, the Icelandic government stated that all domestic deposits in Icelandic banks would be guaranteed, imposed strict capital controls to stabilize the value of the Icelandic króna, and secured a US$5.1bn sovereign debt package from the IMF and the Nordic countries in order to finance a budget deficit and the restoration of the banking system. The international bailout support programme led by IMF officially ended on 31 August 2011, while the capital controls which were imposed in November 2008 were lifted on 14 March 2017.
The financial crisis had a serious negative impact on the Icelandic economy. The national currency fell sharply in value, foreign currency transactions were virtually suspended for weeks, and the market capitalisation of the Icelandic stock exchange fell by more than 90%. Iceland underwent a severe economic depression. Its gross domestic product dropped by 10% in real terms between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2010. A new era with positive GDP growth started in 2011, and has helped foster a gradually declining trend for the unemployment rate. The government budget deficit has declined from 9.7% of GDP in 2009 and 2010 to 0.2% of GDP in 2014; the central government gross debt-to-GDP ratio was expected to decline to less than 60% in 2018 from a maximum of 85% in 2011.
Development
Currency
The Icelandic króna declined more than 35% against the euro from January to September 2008. Inflation of consumer prices was running at 14%, and Iceland's interest rates had been raised to 15.5% to deal with the high inflation.The policy rate was raised from 13.75 percent to 15 percent on 25 March 2008, and to 15.5 percent on 10 April 2008:
On the night of Wednesday, 8 October 2008, the Central Bank of Iceland abandoned its attempt to peg the Icelandic króna at 131 krónur to the euro after trying to set this peg on 6 October. By 9 October, the Icelandic króna was trading at 340 to the euro when trading in the currency collapsed due to the FME's takeover of the last major Icelandic bank, and thus the loss of all króna trade 'clearing houses'. The next day, the central bank introduced restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency within Iceland. From 9 October to 5 November, the European Central Bank quoted a reference rate of 305 krónur to the euro.
+Iceland's account in 2007 and 2008:Exports (imports) of goodsper month in millions of euros 20072008Sept.204.4(316.3)325.0(323.5)Oct.274.6(370.7)310.8(239.0)Nov.346.4(373.3)250.6(236.7)Goods excluding ships and aircraft. Data from Statistics Iceland and the Central Bank of Iceland: conversion from ISK at Central Bank of Iceland monthly average exchange rates.For comparison, monthly average exports (imports) of services were €139.3M (€185.4M) in Q2/2007; €125.6M (€151.9M) in Q2/2008.
The Central Bank of Iceland set up a temporary system of daily currency auctions on 15 October to facilitate international trade. The value of the króna is determined by supply and demand in these auctions. The first auction sold €25 million at a rate of 150 krónur to the euro. Commercial króna trading outside Iceland restarted on 28 October, at an exchange rate of 240 krónur to the euro, after Icelandic interest rates had been raised to 18%. The foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Iceland fell by US$289 million during October 2008.
During November, the real exchange rate (discounting inflation) of the Icelandic króna, as quoted by the Central Bank of Iceland, was roughly one-third lower than the average rate from 1980 to 2008, and 20% lower than the historical lows during the same period. The external rate as quoted by the European Central Bank was lower still. On the last trading day of the month, 28 November, the Central Bank of Iceland was quoting 182.5 krónur to the euro, while the European Central Bank was quoting 280 krónur to the euro.
On 28 November, the Central Bank of Iceland and the Minister for Business Affairs agreed on a new set of currency regulations, replacing the central bank's restrictions imposed early on in the crisis. Movements of capital to and from Iceland were banned without a license from the central bank. It was estimated at this time that foreign investors held some €2.9 billion in króna-denominated securities, popularly known as "glacier bonds".
The foreign exchange rules also oblige Icelandic residents to deposit any new foreign currency they receive with an Icelandic bank. There is anecdotal evidence that some Icelandic exporters had been operating an informal offshore foreign exchange market, trading pounds and euros for krónur outside the control of any regulator and starving the onshore market of foreign currency. Hence the Central Bank had to sell €124 million of currency reserves in November 2008 to make up the difference, compared with an estimated trade surplus of €13.9 million.
The last currency auction was held on 3 December. The domestic interbank foreign exchange market reopened the following day with three market makers, all of them government-owned. On the first two days of domestic trading, the króna climbed to 153.3 to the euro, up 22% against the last currency auction rate.
In January 2009, the exchange rate of Icelandic króna against Euro seemed to be more stabilized compared with the situation in October 2008, with the lowest rate at 177.5 krónur per EUR on 1, 3 and 4 January 2009, and the highest at 146.8 on 30 January 2009. In the meantime, however, Iceland's 12-month inflation in January 2009 climbed to a record high of 18.6%.
Banks
In September 2008, internal documents from Kaupthing, the largest bank in Iceland, were leaked to WikiLeaks. On 29 September 2008, a plan was announced for the bank Glitnir to be nationalised by the Icelandic government with the purchase of a 75% stake for €600 million. The government stated that it did not intend to hold ownership of the bank for a long period, and that the bank was expected to carry on operating as normal. According to the government, the bank "would have ceased to exist" within a few weeks if there had not been intervention. It later turned out that Glitnir had US$750 million of debt due to mature on 15 October. However, the nationalization of Glitnir never went through, as it was placed in receivership by the FME before the initial plan of the Icelandic government to purchase a 75% stake had been approved by shareholders.
The announced nationalisation of Glitnir came just as the United Kingdom government was forced to nationalise Bradford & Bingley and to sell its retail operations and branch network to Grupo Santander. Over the weekend of 4–5 October, British newspapers carried many articles detailing the nationalisation of Glitnir and the high leverage of Iceland's other banks. Influential BBC business editor Robert Peston published an opinion piece on the banks, stating that debt insurance for Kaupthing required a premium of £625,000 to guarantee the return of £1 million: "the worst case of financial BO I've encountered in some time" was his graphic description. The Guardian said "Iceland is on the brink of collapse. Inflation and interest rates are raging upwards. The krona, Iceland's currency, is in freefall." These articles spooked investors discussing Icesave (the brand name of Landsbanki in the UK and the Netherlands) in online forums and many started moving their savings out of the Internet bank. Problems with access to the site hinted at a run on savings.
On 6 October, a number of private interbank credit facilities to Icelandic banks were shut down. Prime Minister Geir Haarde addressed the nation in a speech that became infamous for its portentous closing words: 'God bless Iceland'. He announced a package of new regulatory measures which were to be put to the Althing, Iceland's parliament, immediately, with the cooperation of the opposition parties. These included the power of the FME to take over the running of Icelandic banks without nationalising them, and preferential treatment for depositors in the event that a bank had to be liquidated. In a separate measure, retail deposits in Icelandic branches of Icelandic banks were guaranteed in full. The emergency measures had been deemed unnecessary by the Icelandic government less than 24 hours earlier.
That evening, the Guernsey subsidiary of Landsbanki went into voluntary administration with the approval of the Guernsey Financial Services Commission. The administrators would later say that "The main reason for the Bank's difficulties has been the placing of funds with its UK fellow subsidiary, Heritable Bank." Guernsey's Chief Minister stated "the directors of Landsbanki Guernsey took appropriate steps by putting the bank into administration."