The Pickens Plan is an energy policy proposal announced July 8, 2008, by American businessman T. Boone Pickens. Pickens wanted to reduce American dependence on imported oil by investing approximately $US1 trillion in new wind turbine farms for power generation, which he believed would allow the natural gas used for power generation to be shifted to fuel trucks and other heavy vehicles with Compressed natural gas. Pickens stated that his plan could reduce by $300 billion (43%) the amount the country spends annually on foreign oil.
Proposal The main proposals of the plan are: Private industry would fund and install thousands of wind turbines in the Great Plains, which Pickens refers to as the potential "wind corridor" of the United States due to favorable wind resources and geographic location. Pickens estimates that these turbines could generate enough power to provide 20 percent or more of the country's electricity supply. Government would pay for electric power transmission lines to connect the turbine farms to the power grid. They would provide energy to the Midwest, South and Western regions of the country. With wind energy providing a large portion of the nation's electricity, the natural gas that is currently used to fuel power plants would be used instead as a fuel for thousands of vehicles. To increase efficiency, the Plan puts an emphasis on natural gas-burning fleets of trucks and buses. Thus, the demand for petroleum products made from imported oil would be reduced.
Timetable Pickens thought his plan that would provide 22% of electricity from wind power and the conversion for vehicles from gasoline to gas could be accomplished in less than 10 years with the right leadership. However, according to Chuck McGowin, senior project manager at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit organization funded by the electric power industry, the timetable was too tight. Dave Hamilton, director for global warming and energy projects at the Sierra Club agreed: "That is extremely aggressive .. But it's in the right direction. It's a good thing we have an oilman saying we can't drill our way out of this problem." Former U.S. vice president Al Gore, who had spent recent years informing people about global warming, opined that all electricity generation should be completely fossil-fuel free in the next 10 years.
Wind power status and potential
Wind power had been experiencing exponential growth in the United States for several years when Pickens announced his plan. Wind power in Texas grew very rapidly, 2400% from 1999 to 2007. In another large state, California, wind generation increased by 48% in the same period. The cost of wind power generation has decreased by about 80% over the last 20 years because of technological advances and is now cost-competitive with other energy sources. Wind-generated electricity can be produced at 5 to 6 cents per kWh.
A yardstick used to determine locations with high potential wind energy production is referred to as Wind Power Density (WPD). It is a calculation relating to the effective force of the wind at a particular location, frequently expressed in terms of the elevation above ground level over a period of time. It takes into account wind velocity and mass. Color coded maps are frequently prepared for a particular area described, for example, as "Mean Annual Power Density at 50 Meters." The results of the above calculation are entered into an index developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and referred to as "NREL CLASS." The larger the WPD calculation, the higher it is rated by class.Kansas Wind Energy Project, Affiliated Atlantic & Western Group Inc, 5250 W 94th Terrace, Prairie Village, Kansas 66207
The Pickens Plan called for increasing the installed wind power capacity by at least a factor of ten from its 2008 level by 2018. This would tap only a small fraction of total U.S. wind power potential, which is estimated to be as much as 16 times more than the year-2005 electricity demand in the United States.
+Installed U.S. wind power Year Nameplate Capacity, MW 1999 2,500 2000 2,566 2001 4,261 2002 4,685 2003 6,374 2004 6,740 2005 9,149 2006 11,575 2007 16,596 2008 25,176
Technical issues
Power generation and transmission lines
Pickens says that his plan could generate enough wind power to provide 22 percent of the country's electricity. The Institute for Energy Research (IER), an organization that is funded by the oil industry, disagrees. The IER claims that Pickens' plan relies on government subsidies and that producing large amounts of wind power is not a viable option. Instead, the IER advocates "less government for more abundant and affordable energy."
Pickens acknowledges that natural gas would still be required for peak electricity demand and additional infrastructure would be needed to distribute the wind energy across the country. New transmission lines, worth $64 billion to $128 billion, would be needed to carry the power from the wind turbines to the cities. Pickens testified before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee and said the government should begin building transmission lines for wind-generated power in the same way that President Eisenhower did by declaring an emergency to build the interstate highway system in the 1950s and 1960s. As an alternative, Pickens proposed that the government should provide the right of way on private land and extend tax credits so the private sector can build the lines. Kenneth Medlock III, an energy fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and a critic of Pickens' Plan, said "A lot of what he's trying to do is add value to a stranded asset."
Despite the recession, Denver oil man Philip Anschutz is moving forward with the construction of a wind farm in southern Wyoming and a transmission line to Phoenix, Las Vegas and Southern California.
Intermittency
One of the challenges with using wind to replace natural gas is the intermittent nature of wind energy, since the same wind conditions are not always present. According to a 2007 study by Archer & Jacobson published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, interconnecting ten or more widely separated wind farms allows 33 to 47% of the total energy produced (15–20% of nominal capacity) to be used as reliable, baseload electric power, as long as minimum criteria are met for wind speed and turbine height.
To dispatch power when the wind isn't blowing, backup power plants would be needed, according to Paul Fremont, an electric utility analyst at the investment bank Jefferies & Co. Natural gas plants can quickly be brought online to supply peaking capacity during periods of low wind or peak demand. According to Art Holland, a director at Pace Global Energy Services, the US will need to replace 140,000 MW of gas plant capacity over the next 10 years due to plant retirements. This translates to twice as much wind capacity due to the difference in capacity factors.
Instead of dispatching additional power generation, energy could be conserved on demand. The Smart power grid, an intelligent power distribution network currently being researched and developed, can reduce power consumption at the client side during peak hours and thereby lessen our dependence on gas for load following.
Storing electricity is currently significantly more expensive than using dispatchable generation, but it can be done. Wind energy can be stored by pumping water uphill when the wind is blowing, and then releasing it through turbine generators when the electricity is needed. TVA's Raccoon Mountain Pumped-Storage Plant near Chattanooga, TN is just one example of many such installations that already exist in the US. Another option is to uprate the peak generating capacity of existing hydroelectric dams by adding more generator units; this allows a hydroelectric plant to buffer the variable output of wind farms on the grid, by accumulating river water during periods of strong winds, and releasing extra water when winds are calm and power demand is high. A dam that impounds a large reservoir can store and release large amounts of water by adjusting the reservoir level within a few meters.
Compressed-air energy storage is another energy storage mechanism. When there is excess electrical energy production, air is compressed and stored in a limestone cavern. Then when the energy is needed again, the compressed air generates electricity by blowing through a turbine. Vanadium redox batteries are being used to store energy and level loads from wind generation projects. The excess energy is stored chemically in different ionic forms of vanadium in a dilute sulfuric acid electrolyte. The reaction can be reversed, which allows the battery to be charged, discharged and recharged.
Making the transition
Pickens' Plan proposes that the natural gas that is currently used to fuel power plants be used instead as a fuel for class 7 and 8 semis. Ken Medlock, a research fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, says that the US will continue to use natural gas for electric power generation. Natural gas burns cleaner than coal, making it an increasingly popular fuel for power plants. Gas plants also produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.
The technology needed for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles such as City buses, fork lifts and passenger cars with CNG drivetrains is available now. Honda sells the Civic GX, with a range. In addition, it is possible to convert vehicles to run on CNG in addition to leaving the conventional fuel injection intact, allowing the driver to switch back and forth at will. Kits are available for the do-it-yourselfer. One can buy a CNG compressor called Phill that hooks up to the city natural gas line making it possible to refuel a CNG car at home.
On the other hand, the IER believes that natural gas vehicles are "a niche product." Patricia Monahan, believes "It's going to be a big price tag" to switch to CNG vehicles. Monahan considers CNG an excellent fuel for running small fleets of vehicles which log heavy mileage per vehicle, such as buses and garbage trucks. Vehicles which use large amounts of fuel realize savings more quickly from the lower price of CNG relative to diesel.
In November 2008, Pickens changed his position stating that he wants heavy trucks, not cars running on natural gas. Rich Kolodziej, President of NGVAmerica, says the very limited distribution network for natural gas is currently available in only 1,200 out of 190,000 gas stations would better serve commercial fleets and long-haul trucks.
Policy issues
Renewable Portfolio Standards Twenty-four states plus the District of Columbia have Renewable Portfolio Standards in place to set targets for renewable energy in those states. Four more states have set non-binding energy targets.
Economic issues
Funding The Energy Policy Act of 2005 created the Clean Renewable Energy Bond (CREB) program, effectively offering interest-free debt to eligible renewable projects. In October 2008, the CREB program was extended to March 6, 2009.
Since July 2008, Pickens’ Dallas-based investment firm, BP Capital, has lost as much as $2 billion as a result of the falling stock market and credit crunch. Pickens may have lost around $300 million of his personal funds.
Cost of wind vs. natural gas