The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007.Two Party Preferred by Division The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.Electoral matrix: 2004 federal election

Government seats (83)Marginal (25)Robertson (NSW)Belinda NealALP0.11Flynn (Qld)Chris TrevorALP0.16Solomon (NT)Damian HaleALP0.19Corangamite (Vic)Darren CheesemanALP0.85Bass (Tas)Jodie CampbellALP1.00Hasluck (WA)Sharryn JacksonALP1.26Bennelong (NSW)Maxine McKewALP1.40Deakin (Vic)Mike SymonALP1.41Braddon (Tas)Sid SidebottomALP1.44Petrie (Qld)Yvette D'AthALP2.05Page (NSW)Janelle SaffinALP2.36Forde (Qld)Brett RaguseALP2.91Dawson (Qld)James BidgoodALP3.21Eden-Monaro (NSW)Mike KellyALP3.40Longman (Qld)Jon SullivanALP3.57Dobell (NSW)Craig ThomsonALP3.90Leichhardt (Qld)Jim TurnourALP4.03Kingston (SA)Amanda RishworthALP4.42Blair (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP4.48Franklin (Tas)Julie CollinsALP4.48Bonner (Qld)Kerry ReaALP4.53Melbourne (Vic)Lindsay TannerALP4.71 v GRNMoreton (Qld)Graham PerrettALP4.75Hindmarsh (SA)Steve GeorganasALP5.05Brand (WA)Gary GrayALP5.62Fairly safe (21)Bendigo (Vic)Steve GibbonsALP6.13Wakefield (SA)Nick ChampionALP6.59Brisbane (Qld)Arch BevisALP6.76Lindsay (NSW)David BradburyALP6.78Parramatta (NSW)Julie OwensALP6.88Macquarie (NSW)Bob DebusALP7.04Melbourne Ports (Vic)Michael DanbyALP7.15Lowe (NSW)John MurphyALP7.37Chisholm (Vic)Anna BurkeALP7.38Isaacs (Vic)Mark DreyfusALP7.69Makin (SA)Tony ZappiaALP7.70Ballarat (Vic)Catherine KingALP8.15Bruce (Vic)Alan GriffinALP8.32Adelaide (SA)Kate EllisALP8.53Lilley (Qld)Wayne SwanALP8.59Lyons (Tas)Dick AdamsALP8.78Perth (WA)Stephen SmithALP8.85Richmond (NSW)Justine ElliotALP8.87Corio (Vic)Richard MarlesALP8.93Jagajaga (Vic)Jenny MacklinALP8.98Fremantle (WA)Melissa ParkeALP9.14Safe (28)Banks (NSW)Daryl MelhamALP11.08Lingiari (NT)Warren SnowdonALP11.16Holt (Vic)Anthony ByrneALP11.63Rankin (Qld)Craig EmersonALP11.74Canberra (ACT)Annette EllisALP11.82Barton (NSW)Robert McClellandALP12.10Griffith (Qld)Kevin RuddALP12.32Capricornia (Qld)Kirsten LivermoreALP12.71Charlton (NSW)Greg CombetALP12.87Hotham (Vic)Simon CreanALP13.00Kingsford Smith (NSW)Peter GarrettALP13.29Prospect (NSW)Chris BowenALP13.46Oxley (Qld)Bernie RipollALP14.13Shortland (NSW)Jill HallALP14.74Fraser (ACT)Bob McMullanALP15.07Werriwa (NSW)Chris HayesALP15.24Maribyrnong (Vic)Bill ShortenALP15.32Lalor (Vic)Julia GillardALP15.53Denison (Tas)Duncan KerrALP15.63Newcastle (NSW)Sharon GriersonALP15.91Hunter (NSW)Joel FitzgibbonALP15.92Reid (NSW)Laurie FergusonALP16.80Cunningham (NSW)Sharon BirdALP18.13Fowler (NSW)Julia IrwinALP18.25Blaxland (NSW)Jason ClareALP18.37Calwell (Vic)Maria VamvakinouALP19.33Sydney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP19.50Port Adelaide (SA)Mark ButlerALP19.75Very safe (9)Watson (NSW)Tony BurkeALP20.33Chifley (NSW)Roger PriceALP20.66Scullin (Vic)Harry JenkinsALP20.85Gorton (Vic)Brendan O'ConnorALP21.22Gellibrand (Vic)Nicola RoxonALP21.46Wills (Vic)Kelvin ThomsonALP22.41Throsby (NSW)Jennie GeorgeALP23.46Grayndler (NSW)Anthony AlbaneseALP24.93Batman (Vic)Martin FergusonALP25.95 Opposition seats (65)Marginal (32)McEwen (Vic)Fran BaileyLIB0.01Bowman (Qld)Andrew LamingLIB0.04Swan (WA)Steve IronsLIB0.11Dickson (Qld)Peter DuttonLIB0.13Herbert (Qld)Peter LindsayLIB0.21La Trobe (Vic)Jason WoodLIB0.51Macarthur (NSW)Pat FarmerLIB0.72Sturt (SA)Christopher PyneLIB0.94Cowper (NSW)Luke HartsuykerNAT1.23Stirling (WA)Michael KeenanLIB1.29Paterson (NSW)Bob BaldwinLIB1.51Hinkler (Qld)Paul NevilleNAT1.69Cowan (WA)Luke SimpkinsLIB1.71Hughes (NSW)Danna ValeLIB2.16Kalgoorlie (WA)Barry HaaseLIB2.58Boothby (SA)Andrew SouthcottLIB2.93Fairfax (Qld)Alex SomlyayLIB3.01Fisher (Qld)Peter SlipperLIB3.10Ryan (Qld)Michael JohnsonLIB3.82Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm TurnbullLIB3.85Dunkley (Vic)Bruce BillsonLIB4.04Gilmore (NSW)Joanna GashLIB4.07Hume (NSW)Alby SchultzLIB4.16Grey (SA)Rowan RamseyLIB4.43Greenway (NSW)Louise MarkusLIB4.50McMillan (Vic)Russell BroadbentLIB4.79Aston (Vic)Chris PearceLIB5.05North Sydney (NSW)Joe HockeyLIB5.38Canning (WA)Don RandallLIB5.58Forrest (WA)Nola MarinoLIB5.83Gippsland (Vic)Peter McGauranNAT5.91Casey (Vic)Tony SmithLIB5.93Fairly safe (19)Menzies (Vic)Kevin AndrewsLIB6.02Goldstein (Vic)Andrew RobbLIB6.05Cook (NSW)Scott MorrisonLIB6.57Higgins (Vic)Peter CostelloLIB7.04Mayo (SA)Alexander DownerLIB7.06Wannon (Vic)David HawkerLIB7.47Groom (Qld)Ian MacfarlaneLIB8.22Flinders (Vic)Greg HuntLIB8.25Wide Bay (Qld)Warren TrussNAT8.47Lyne (NSW)Mark VaileNAT8.58Tangney (WA)Dennis JensenLIB8.68McPherson (Qld)Margaret MayLIB8.83Berowra (NSW)Philip RuddockLIB8.94Pearce (WA)Judi MoylanLIB9.07Moore (WA)Mal WasherLIB9.17Indi (Vic)Sophie MirabellaLIB9.19Barker (SA)Patrick SeckerLIB9.45Warringah (NSW)Tony AbbottLIB9.50Kooyong (Vic)Petro GeorgiouLIB9.53Safe (13)Fadden (Qld)Stuart RobertLIB10.20Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLIB11.17Mitchell (NSW)Alex HawkeLIB11.59Calare (NSW)John CobbNAT12.05Mackellar (NSW)Bronwyn BishopLIB12.42Parkes (NSW)Mark CoultonNAT13.04Bradfield (NSW)Brendan NelsonLIB13.45Curtin (WA)Julie BishopLIB13.57Moncrieff (Qld)Steven CioboLIB14.01Maranoa (Qld)Bruce ScottNAT14.44Riverina (NSW)Kay HullNAT16.23O'Connor (WA)Wilson TuckeyLIB16.55Murray (Vic)Sharman StoneLIB18.26Very safe (1)Mallee (Vic)John ForrestNAT21.27Crossbench (2)Kennedy (Qld)Bob KatterIND16.29 v ALPNew England (NSW)Tony WindsorIND24.33 v NAT

References