Climate change for Washington State, in the United States, has major implications on the quality of factors like health, agriculture, air quality, sea levels, and wildlife. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise in concentration, destroying the ozone layer and leading to uncharacteristic rises and falls in temperature that continue the cycle of GHG production in attempts at mitigating the temperature changes. Increased temperatures cause annual snowmelt peaks and glacial melt to occur earlier in the year, resulting in reduced water availability in the summertime. Crops and brush become drier and more flammable, increasing the number of wildfires and destroying the habitats of animals dependent on ground and tree cover. Agricultural production is one of the largest outputs for Washington, and climate change harms the local economy through variable and extreme weather patterns that are not conducive to plant and soil health, or to livestock health. In addition to crops and livestock, the fishing industry depends on the habitats created by yearly snowpack levels, streams, and rivers that are threatened by increased flooding and changes to peak flow times. Climate change impacts local economies that are vital to Washington's agricultural production and revenue.
Policy in Washington centers around reducing consumer GHG emissions and funding renewable energy projects. For Seattle, this was seen in their significant efforts towards creating convenient and reliable public transportation and to increase fuel efficiency and electric vehicle use since their largest GHG source is gasoline fueled cars and trucks. With new policies and methods for addressing GHG, Washington continues its efforts towards mitigating and preventing future climate change, while dealing with the detrimental effects already in place.
Causes and projected outcomes
Additional data on Washington State Climates can be found in the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information State Climate Summary for Washington 2022 here.
For a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on Washington State, see the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group 2013 assessment report, available here.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Current climate change is due to anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Human activities including burning fossil fuels, waste, and wood products cause Carbon Dioxide (CO2 ) emissions. CO2 is the least common type of GHG, while water vapor is the most common. Methane (CH4) is emitted during coal, natural gas, or oil production. Other sources include agricultural livestock and decaying organic matter. Nitrous oxide is emitted through industrial and agricultural activities. Many industrial companies have switched from burning coal and petroleum fuel to natural gas. More toxic pollutants such as hydrofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride, are emitted in smaller rates and are known as High Global Warming Potential Gases.
The state government regularly publishes GHG inventories. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) helps forward the process by providing the state with inventory guidance and technical assistance. These inventories provide the state with useful information about emissions. From here policies will be implemented and added to the State Climate Change Action Plan.
Washington State pumps out 85 to 90 million tons of GHG per year. Washington is responsible for 0.3% of the yearly GE emissions. Since 1970, the amount of harmful gases emitted by the state has grown by 75%. This figure is in line with the GHG output trend globally. Washington produces 13.5 tons of CO2 per person per year. This number is 30% lower than the national average due to the state's reliance on hydropower. This number is three times larger than the average person per year for the world, which is 4 tons per year.
Traffic congestion accounts for a significant percentage of WA State's contribution to GHGs. In the 2006 summary of Washington's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report, reported by CTED of WA, 2004 data showed that Motor gasoline, diesel and jet fuel CO2 emissions were responsible for nearly 98% of the transportation.
The social cost of traffic congestion in Seattle amounts to $1.4 billion annually, and this wasted gasoline accounts for 1.1 billion lbs. of CO2 emissions (496,230 metric tons).
Washington generated most of its energy from hydropower until 1972 when a coal plant in Centralia opened. Naturally, this caused CO2 emissions to increase. Emissions remained steady until the early 1990s when natural gas was introduced into the spectrum of energy generation. Washington's electric energy is responsible for approximately 1/3 of the total increase of CO2 emissions. In 2006, electricity was responsible for 20% of all GHG emissions, but transportation is the main cause of GHG emissions in WA State. It is accountable for 43% of all emissions. Washington is equal to the national average in petroleum related emissions at 8.4 tons and ranks as the 26th in the United States according to the WA State Dept. of Community, Trade & Economic Development report published in 2006.
Pollution
Global greenhouse gas continues to increase and many nations and states are taking actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, including Washington state who has teamed up with Oregon and California in an effort to reduce emissions as part of the West Coast Governors' Global Warming Initiative. The main global greenhouse gas released in Washington include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other gases that contribute to climate change. The different emission types are placed into three categories: energy, industrial processes, and agriculture. Different greenhouse gases range in their individual impact on climate change. For instance, one pound of nitrous oxide is 296 times more potent than a pound of carbon dioxide in contributing to climate change. This means even small quantities of gases emitted into the environment, like nitrous oxide, can have significant impacts on climate change.
For Washington state in particular, energy related emissions are the dominant source of GHG emissions and have increased from 61.2 MMT CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) in 1990 (excluding residual fuel for transportation) to 74.6 MMT CO2-e in 2004, while their share has increased from 79% of total emissions to 85% over the past fourteen years. Carbon dioxide is the dominant GHG followed by methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbon and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Non-energy industrial global greenhouse gas emissions have lowered from 14% to 9%, mainly due to reduced emissions from aluminum production. This has been the result of two key elements: process changes that reduced CO2 and PFC emissions per ton of aluminum generated, and the post-2000 decline in aluminum manufacturing rates.
Non-energy agricultural greenhouse emissions have remained fairly constant but their percentage contribution has lowered as total emissions have increased. Here is a broken down list of pollution contributors in Washington State: 45% transportation, 16% in state electricity generation, 12% industry, 9% residential and commercial, 2% non-CO2 (other gasses), 9% industry (non-energy), 7% agriculture (non-energy). As you can see, the majority of energy GHG emissions and almost half of total emissions are from the transportation sector.
Projected outcomes
Economic Impacts of Climate Change (2007) in Washington State summarizes the impact of forest fires, public health, agriculture, municipal water supply, sea level rise and fisheries on the environment. These conclusions have been reached through several predictions, based primarily on temperature and precipitation models for climate change. The expected warming of every ten years is the main source for any visible impacts. Although total annual precipitation is not expected to change significantly, the increase of temperatures will result in a more minimal snowpack leading to more rain.
Visible physical impacts on the environment within Washington State include glacier reduction, declining snowpack, earlier spring runoff, an increase in large wildfires, and rising sea levels which affect the Puget Sound area.
According to The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Washington State, the major impacts of climate change in Washington State (2007) include:
Increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Increase in temperatures: An estimated by 2020 and up to by 2040. Earlier annual snow melt. Sea level rise of about 3 inches to by 2100. No change in volume of precipitation.
Less snowpack will also result in a time change of water flow volumes into freshwater systems, resulting in greater winter river volume, and less volume during summer's driest months, generally from July through October. These changes will result in both economic and ecological repercussions, most notably found in hydrological power output, municipal water supply and migration of fish.
Collectively, these changes are negatively affecting agriculture, forest resources, dairy farming, the Washington wine industry, electricity, water supply, and other areas of the state.
In 2006, a group of scientists and economists published The Impacts of Climate Change on Washington's Economy, a preliminary assessment on the possible risks and opportunities given a rise in global temperatures occurs, and more specifically, the effects for the state of Washington. Three main conclusions were outlined:
Climate change impacts are visible and the economic effects are becoming apparent. The costs of climate change will grow as temperatures and sea levels rise. Climate change will provide economic opportunities.
The economy of Washington State will dictate the effects of these impacts. These effects are unique to Washington due to individual natural resources, climate patterns, industries, and trade.
Climate change can directly affect the amount of resources that generate economic activity. Climate change can also affect the quality of important resources such as fresh drinking water, irrigation of crops and the generation of electricity. Climate change can also accelerate the depletion of capital assets used toward the formation of seawalls that are needed to protect shorelines from rising sea levels. Climate change can affect human health in ways that impact families and the workforce (e.g., premature death, increased sick days or leaves of absence, health care costs and insurance claims), all of which also impair quality of life.
Washington state has a varied and active economy of approximately $268.5 billion. Washington's gross state product is the sum of twenty-one economic sectors ranging from mining ($400 million in 2004) to real estate, rental, and leasing ($38.8 billion) in 2004. The extent of vulnerability in dealing with climate-related issues is hard to assess for each sector individually. National and international trade and inter-sector links stretch out the vulnerability to climate change effects.
Impact from temperature changes
Electricity
Washington State relies on hydropower for 72% of its power and sales of hydropower to both households and businesses topped $4.3 billion in 2003. Washington State has the 9th lowest cost for electricity in the US. Climate change will have a negative effect on both the supply and demand of electricity in Washington.