2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

The 2008 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 4, 2008, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives, coinciding with the presidential election. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected served in the 111th Congress from January 4, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Its 2007-2008 congressional delegation consisted of four Republicans and four Democrats. Two of the Democrats had taken Republican seats in 2006, and were at risk during the 2008 election. The delegation elected in 2008 consisted of three Republicans and five Democrats: district 1 changed party (from open Republican to Democratic), although CQ Politics had forecast districts 1, 3, 5 and 8 to be at some risk for the incumbent party.Arizona's most competitive congressional races The Arizona Republic, July 13, 2008.

The party primary elections were held on September 2, 2008.2008 Election Information Arizona Secretary of State.

Overview Statewide PartyCandidatesVotesSeats %+/– %Democratic81,055,30545.475 162.50Republican81,021,79844.033 137.50Libertarian861,1002.6300.0Independent49,4110.4100.0Green28,0800.3500.0 Valid votes 2,155,694 92.88 — Invalid or blank votes 165,157 7.12 —Total302,320,851100.08100.0

By district Results of the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:

DistrictDemocraticRepublicanOthersTotalResult Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %District 1 155,791 55.88% 109,924 39.43% 13,072 4.69% 278,787 100.0% Democratic gainDistrict 2 125,611 37.16% 200,914 59.44% 11,498 3.40% 338,023 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 3 115,759 42.07% 148,800 54.08% 10,602 3.85% 275,161 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 4 89,721 72.11% 26,435 21.25% 8,271 6.65% 124,427 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 5 149,033 53.16% 122,165 43.57% 9,167 3.27% 280,365 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 6 115,457 34.55% 208,582 62.42% 10,137 3.03% 334,176 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 7 124,304 63.26% 64,425 32.79% 7,760 3.95% 196,489 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 8 179,629 54.72% 140,553 42.82% 8,084 2.46% 328,266 100.0% Democratic holdTotal 1,055,305 45.47% 1,021,798 44.03% 78,591 10.50% 2,155,694 100.0%

District 1

Incumbent Republican Rick Renzi, who had represented the district since 2003, did not run for re-election. He was re-elected with only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent–Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon–in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. The district had a PVI of R+2.

Republican primary In August 2007, Renzi announced he would not seek re-election,Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to retire Associated Press August 23, 2007. Retrieved August 24, 2007. four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation.

Candidates In the Republican primary, Sydney Ann Hay, mining industry lobbyist, earned a narrower-than-expected victory against Sandra L. B. Livingstone, Tom Hansen and Barry Hall.

Nominee Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist and candidate for the seat in 2002Hay seeks GOP nomination for Renzi seat Associated Press August 30, 2007. Retrieved February 22, 2008.

Eliminated in primary Barry Hall, former Baptist minister Sandra Livingstone, former State Department official and lawyer Tom Hansen, engineer

Withdrawn Preston Korn, candidate for state representative in 2006

Declined Ken Bennett, former president of the Arizona Senate Bill Konopnicki, state representative Steve Pierce, rancher Kris Mayes, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission Tom O'Halleran, state senate Rick Renzi, incumbent U.S. Representative Lewis Tenney, former Navajo County Supervisor and candidate for the seat in 2002

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Ann Kirkpatrick, former state representative and prosecutor

Eliminated in primary Jeffrey Brown, mental health advocate Mary Kim Titla, publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster Howard Shanker, attorney

Withdrawn Allan Affeldt, mayor of Winslow Ellen Simon, civil rights attorney and nominee for the seat in 2006 (dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons)

Declined George Cordova, businessman and nominee for the seat in 2002 Jim Ledbetter, attorney Bob Mitchell, former mayor of Casa Grande (brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell) Jim Pederson, real estate developer, former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006 Carter Olson, Pinal County attorney Steve Owens, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director and nominee for the 6th district in 1996 & 1998

Endorsements Kirkpatrick earned endorsements from leaders in government, education, tribal communities, first responders, and other groups. Among those endorsing her were: Governor Janet Napolitano, U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords, U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell, the Arizona Education Association, the Arizona Police Association, the Arizona Conference of Police and Sheriffs, the International Association of Fire Fighters, Navajo County School Superintendent Linda Morrow, county sheriffs in Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, Navajo, and Pinal Counties, Coconino County School Superintendent Cecilia Owen, Pinal County School Superintendent Orlenda Roberts, Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley Jr., San Carlos Apache Tribal Chair Wendsler Nosie, White Mountain Apache Tribal Chair Ronnie Lupe, former Navajo Nation President Dr. Peterson Zah, and many other tribal leaders.Ann Kirkpatrick for Arizona The Arizona Republic, the state's largest newspaper, the White Mountain Independent, and the Arizona Daily Sun (two of the most widely read newspapers in the district), also endorsed her candidacy.

Results Kirkpatrick won by almost 15 points over Kim Titla.

Libertarian primary Results

Independents Independent Brent Maupin, a Sedona engineer and businessman ran.

General election Campaign Kirkpatrick ran on a platform of tax cuts for 86 million middle-class families, making health care affordable and accessible to all, and encouraging renewable energy projects to end America's dependence on foreign energy and create jobs for rural Arizona. She also supported increasing teacher salaries, expanding SCHIP, and adding a division to the army. As a member of the Arizona State Legislature, Kirkpatrick was known for her willingness to work across party lines.

Hay meanwhile ran on increasing offshore drilling and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as tapping oil reserves in Colorado and Wyoming to stimulate the economy. She also recognized the need to reach across party lines to create meaningful change.

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 6, 2008 Rothenberg November 2, 2008 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 6, 2008 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2008 CQ Politics November 6, 2008

Results Kirkpatrick's victory resulted in a House gain for Democrats.

Race ranking and details from CQ Politics Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 2

Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 58.6% of the vote in 2006. The district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative

Results

Democratic primary In what was essentially a rematch of the previous election, Franks was challenged by Democrat John Thrasher (campaign website)

Candidates Nominee John Thrasher, educator and nominee for the seat in 2006

Results

Libertarian primary Candidates Nominee Powell Gammill, molecular biologist and nominee for the seat in 2004 and 2006

Results

Green primary Candidates Nominee William Crum

Results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 6, 2008 Rothenberg November 2, 2008 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 6, 2008 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2008 CQ Politics November 6, 2008

Results

Race ranking and details from CQ Politics Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets

District 3

Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2006. The district was previously represented by Arizona's junior United States senator, Republican Jon Kyl. The district had a PVI of R+6.

Republican primary An outspoken conservative, Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in the Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Lord outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even had more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which resulted in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress.

On February 11, 2008, incumbent Shadegg announced he would not run for an eighth term, saying that he wanted to "seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom." However, on February 21, Shadegg retracted the statement and announced he would seek re-election. Over 140 Republicans in Congress had signed a letter asking Shadegg to keep his seat. Although it was speculated that he would run for the United States Senate if John McCain were to become president, Shadegg had expressed his intention to leave public life and return to the private sector before changing his mind.

Steve May a former state representative had announced a run for the seat but withdrew from the race when Shadegg announced he would seek another term after all.

Candidates Nominee John Shadegg, incumbent U.S. Representative

Withdrawn Steve May, former state representative

Declined Pamela Gorman, state senator Dean Martin, state treasurer Sean Noble, Shadegg's chief of staff Jim Waring, state senator James Weiers, speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives Ed Winkler, mayor of Paradise Valley

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Bob Lord, tax attorney (campaign website)

Results

Libertarian primary Candidates Nominee Michael Shoen

Results

Independents Running as independents were Mark Yannone (campaign website), Annie Loyd, and Edwin Winkler.

Annie Loyd, running on a platform of "transpartisan politics", has been said by The Arizona Republic to be a moderate. Born in South Dakota and a community activist in Los Angeles, she is a 15-year resident of Phoenix. She made an appearance at Columbia University. Shadegg's 2006 Democratic opponent, consultant Herb Paine, announced his support for Loyd. However, none of the independents made the ballot.

General election Campaign The race was covered by the East Valley Tribune. It showed a 27% independent voter population and noted increased registration of independents in District 3. In a district of 600,000 people cutting across urban Phoenix into rural parts of northern Maricopa County. The Federal Elections Commission reports that as of December 31, 2007, Shadegg had raised over $1,000,000, Lord over $600,000, and Loyd $26,000. May and Winkler had not reported any fundraising.

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorJohnShadegg (R)BobLord (D)MichaelShoen (L)UndecidedResearch 2000 (Daily Kos)Research 2000 (Daily Kos) October 20–22, 2008 400 (LV) ±5.0% 50% 40% 2% 8%Research 2000 (Daily Kos)Research 2000 (Daily Kos) October 6–8, 2008 400 (LV) ±5.0% 48% 39% 2% 11%Anzalone Liszt Research (D-DCCC)Anzalone Liszt Research (D-DCCC) October 6–8, 2008 400 (LV) ±4.9% 44% 45% 5% 6%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 6, 2008 Rothenberg November 2, 2008 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 6, 2008 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2008 CQ Politics November 6, 2008

Results