A democratic transition describes a phase in a country's political system as a result of an ongoing change from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one. The process is known as democratisation, political changes moving in a democratic direction. Democratization waves have been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which created openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms. Although transitional regimes experience more civil unrest, they may be considered stable in a transitional phase for decades at a time. Since the end of the Cold War transitional regimes have become the most common form of government. Scholarly analysis of the decorative nature of democratic institutions concludes that the opposite democratic backsliding (autocratization), a transition to authoritarianism, is the most prevalent basis of modern hybrid regimes.
Typology
Autocratization
Democratisation
Factors
Decolonization
Democratic globalization
Democracy promotion
Outcomes
Democratic consolidation
Stalled transition Hybrid regime
Measurement
Successful transitions to democracy Anocratic regimes are often implicitly mentioned in democratic transition literature. There are several examples of regimes that have successfully transitioned from anocracy to democracy.
Mexico Mexico's transition from an anocratic to democratic regime occurred in the 1980s and the 1990s on the electoral stage. The period was characterized by the rise of multiple parties, the decline of power of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and the decentralization of power from the national level to municipalities. The democratization process produced competitive elections with less voting fraud, culminating with the 1994 presidential election. There was also a documented increase in the role of media and journalism during this period, which led to the creation of various special interest groups, such as those representing the environment, indigenous rights, and women's rights. However, violence continues to remain a characteristic of Mexico's local elections.
Taiwan At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Republic of China retreated to the island of Taiwan. The constitution used by the Republic of China to govern Taiwan guaranteed civil rights and elections, but it was ignored in favor of rule under martial law. Taiwan's pro-democracy movement gained momentum in the early 1980s and coalesced into the formation of the Democratic Progressive Party in 1986. Over the next decade, Taiwan attempted to restore the civil rights promised in its constitution, culminating with Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996. Taiwan continues to move towards a consolidated democracy.
Ghana In 1991, Ghana was listed as an autocratic regime with a Polity score of negative seven. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, Ghana was an open anocracy. In 2005, Ghana successfully transitioned from an open anocracy to a democracy as it has retained a Polity score of eight since 2006. A major part of Ghana's success can be attributed to its management of the electoral process to decrease electoral conflict. Since Ghana began having elections in 1992, the strengthening of government institutions such as a strong, independent electoral commission has decreased electoral conflict. The existence of civil society organizations and a media aimed at ensuring democratic principles have also helped manage electoral conflicts in Ghana. For example, Ghana's 2008 elections ended peacefully, as political institutions were able to respond to electoral challenges and advance democratic principles and processes. However, some electoral conflicts remain on a small scale in Ghana such as ethnic vote blocking, vote buying, intimidation, and hate speeches. Yet, even with those minor conflicts, Ghana has been able to transform from an anocracy to a democracy by decreasing electoral conflicts.
Africa At the end of World War II, European control over its colonial territories in Africa diminished. During the period of decolonization in the 1950s and 1960s, many African states gained independence. Although these newly independent African states could become either democratic or autocratic regimes, manageability issues made way for autocratic regimes to come into power. Most underdeveloped African states that did become democracies in this period failed within 10 years and transitioned to autocracies. For about 30 years after 1960, the number of autocratic regimes in Africa rose from 17 to 41 as the number of democratic regimes stayed around five. After the fall of communist states in Europe and the rise of democratization at the end of the Cold War, Africa experienced a major political transformation. In the 1990s, the number of autocracies decreased to nine, and the number of democracies increased to nine since many African countries remained anocratic. By 2012, Africa had three autocracies, 17 democracies, and 30 anocracies. By 2013, most African countries had remained either open or closed anocracies. As African states transition from autocracy to anocracy and from anocracy to democracy, electoral conflicts and violence remain prevalent.
Nigeria With a Polity score of four in 2014, Nigeria is categorized as an open anocracy, transitioning closer to democracy than autocracy. In recent years, Nigeria has displayed characteristics of anocratic regimes including political corruption and electoral riggings. Following years of military rule after gaining independence in 1960 to 1999 except for 1979 to 1983, the 2007 general elections marked the first time in Nigerian history that political leadership was passed from one civilian to another by an election. However, in late 2006, just months before the April 2007 general election, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo used state institutions to try to defeat political opponents as he attempted to win a third presidential term. Using the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), an institution created by his administration, the former president had some of his political enemies and their family members arrested or detained. Despite the electoral conflicts, some Nigerians view their country as running on democratic principles because military power has been controlled by political elites for 15 years. However, those electoral conflicts, combined with state governors using legislative and judiciary power to win elections repeatedly, suggests that Nigeria remains an anocracy. Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan was accused of abusing his power in an attempt to remain in office after 2015, despite claiming his presidency advocated democratic principles. The Administration of President Buhari has also seen State forces used in ways that can be at times described as anti-democratic by State Governors and agents of the Federal Government.
Somalia Somalia was labeled as an autocracy from 1969 to 2012, with a Polity score of negative seven throughout the entire period. From 1969 to 1991, Siad Barre was the military dictator of the Somali Democratic Republic. After Barre was overthrown in 1991, two decades of chaos ensued, as civil war broke out and rival warlords fought to gain power. The consistent fighting of tribal leaders and warlords made the country unable to deal with natural disasters, droughts, and famines, which caused a combined 500,000 deaths in famines in 1992 and 2010 to 2012.
After years of being split into fiefdoms, the main Somali warlords established an agreement to appoint a new president in 2004. However, the plan failed when Islamist insurgents, including the radical youth militia al-Shabaab, which has links to Al-Qaeda, gained control over much of southern Somalia from 2006 to 2008. With the assistance of international peacekeeping offensives and the Kenyan army, the Islamist insurgents were forced to withdraw in 2012. In the same year, the first formal parliament in over 20 years was appointed in Somalia. The newly formed parliament chose Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as the new president in September 2012. With international assistance, the Somali government has been able to rebuild itself and the country has recently been relatively more stable. Since 2013, Somalia has retained a Polity score of five and is listed as an open anocracy.
Uganda In the 1990s, Uganda transitioned from an autocracy to a closed anocracy. Although Uganda saw a jump in its Polity score in the mid-2000s, it has retained a Polity score of negative two for the last decade. Uganda is populated by many ethnic groups with the largest, the Buganda group, making up 17% of the population. Since Uganda gained independence in 1962, incessant conflict has ensued among approximately 17 ethnic groups, which has led to political instability. The dictator Idi Amin was responsible for around 300,000 deaths under his rule from 1971 to 1979, and guerrilla warfare from 1980 to 1985 under Milton Obote killed 100,000 people. Human rights abuses under both rulers led to even more deaths from 1971 to 1985.
In the early 1990s, Uganda experienced large-scale violent dissent as the country experienced more rebellions and guerrilla warfare. As a result of the wars, the government called for non-party presidential and legislative elections in the mid-1990s. A period of relative peace followed, as a common law legal system was instituted in 1995. Uganda transitioned from an authoritarian regime to a closed anocracy. The political situation of Uganda has seen little improvement under the rule of Yoweri Museveni, who has maintained power since 1986 because other political organizations in Uganda cannot sponsor candidates. Only Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) can operate without any limitations, leading to electoral conflicts and violence.
Zimbabwe When Robert Mugabe became president in 1980, Zimbabwe was listed as an open anocracy with a Polity score of four. By 1987, the country had almost fully transitioned to an authoritarian regime, with a Polity score of negative six, which made it a closed anocracy. After remaining on the border between an authoritarian regime and closed anocracy for over a decade, Zimbabwe's Polity score increased in the early 2000s. Currently, Zimbabwe has a Polity score of 4, making it an open anocracy. In recent years, Zimbabwe has moved toward becoming a more democratic regime, but electoral conflicts and human rights violations still exist leaving Zimbabwe as an anocratic regime.
In the late 1990s, when Zimbabwe was a closed anocracy, the country experienced major human rights violations. Labor strikes were common, as employers did not listen to the demands of their employees, and real wages fell by 60 percent from 1992 to 1997. The labor strikes that occurred in the late 1990s were declared illegal by the government of Zimbabwe, and blame was put on poor working-class citizens. As labor laws continued hurting workers, health services declined, and housing projects stagnated.