From January 3 to June 3, 2008, voters of the Republican Party chose their nominee for president in the 2008 United States presidential election. Senator John McCain of Arizona was selected as the nominee through a series of primary elections and caucuses culminating in the 2008 Republican National Convention held from Monday, September 1, through Thursday, September 4, 2008, in Saint Paul, Minnesota. President George W. Bush was ineligible to be elected to a third term due to the term limits established by the 22nd Amendment.
In a crowded primary of several prominent Republicans eyeing the nomination, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani was the early frontrunner.Cohen et al., "The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform", Chicago: 2008, p 338. However, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the Iowa Caucuses as he gained momentum just two months prior to the primary. Moderate U.S. Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain won the New Hampshire and Florida primaries. After failing to win in Florida, Giuliani ended his campaign.
McCain ultimately won the nomination after winning most of the primaries on Super Tuesday. He was officially nominated at the 2008 Republican National Convention on September 4, 2008, but went on to lose the general election to Barack Obama.
Candidates
Notes for the following table: Delegate counts is the final estimated delegate count.
Nominee The vast majority of primaries were of the "winner-take-all" variety, and convention rules meant that no one with less than five states in their "pockets" would be allowed to have their names placed in nomination. This guaranteed that the primary season would be very short. McCain won New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and thus became nearly unstoppable. After decisive victories on super Tuesday and the potomac primary McCain became the presumptive nominee. Candidates are listed by delegate counts. Candidate Most recent office Home state Estimated delegate count (RCP) Candidacy Delegations with plurality Running mateMcCain, JohnJohn McCain U.S. Senator from Arizona(1987–2018) 1,57572.5%Secured nomination:March 4, 2008(Campaign) 31 NH, SC, FL, NY, CA, IL, MO, OK, CT, AR, NJ, DE WA, VA, MD, WI, VT, RI, OH, TX, MS, PA, IN NC, NE, HI, KY, OR, ID, SD, NMNon-states: DC, PR, MP, AS, VI, GU Sarah Palin
Withdrew during primaries Candidate Most recent office Home state Estimated delegate count (RCP) Candidacy Delegations with pluralityHuckabee, MikeMike Huckabee Governor of Arkansas(1996–2007) 27812.8%Withdrew:March 4, 2008(Campaign) 8AL, AR, GA, IA, WV, TN KS, LARomney, MittMitt Romney Governor of Massachusetts(2003–2007) 27112.5% Withdrew: February 7, 2008(Campaign) 11MI, NV, WY, ME, MA, MT UT, MN, CO, ND, AKPaul, RonRon Paul U.S. Representative from Texas(1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) 351.6% Lost nomination: June 12, 2008(Campaign) 0Thompson, FredFred Thompson U.S. Senator from Tennessee(1994–2003) 110.5% Withdrew: January 22, 2008 (Campaign) 0Keyes, AlanAlan Keyes Asst. Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (1985–1987) 2 Withdrew: April 15, 2008(Campaign) 0 Hunter, DuncanDuncan Hunter U.S. Representative for California's 52nd(1993–2009) 1Withdrew:January 19, 2008 (Campaign) Giuliani, RudyRudy Giuliani Mayor of New York City(1994–2001) Withdrew:January 30, 2008(Campaign)
Withdrew before primaries Candidate Most recent office Home state Estimated delegate count (RCP) Candidacy Delegations with pluralityBrownback, SamSam Brownback U.S. Senator from Kansas(1996–2011) Withdrew:October 19, 2007(Campaign) H. Cox, JohnJohn H. Cox Founder ofCox Financial Group Ltd. Withdrew:December 2007(Campaign) Gilmore, JimJim Gilmore Governor of Virginia(1998–2002) Withdrew:July 14, 2007(Campaign) Tancredo, TomTom Tancredo U.S. Representative for Colorado's 6th(1999–2009) Withdrew:December 20, 2007(Campaign) Thompson, TommyTommy Thompson United States Secretary of Health and Human Services(2001–2005) Withdrew:August 12, 2007(Campaign)
Declined to run
Calendar Primary key Primary type Explanation Closed Voters may only select candidates of the party for which they are registered Open Anyone is allowed to vote for candidates from either party Modified open Voters registered to a party may only select candidates of that party, but independents may choose candidates from either party Caucus Party members meet among themselves to select candidates. Rules may be very complicated, including members having to choose publicly by standing in groups by preference, instead of secret ballot Primary An election-type selection process, with general voters going to polling places for a secret ballot Convention Delegates chosen locally by each party meet in a central location and select a candidate Presidential preference Those polled get to list candidates in the order of whom they like most. As candidates are eliminated, the highest remaining on their list becomes their vote WTA Winner-Take-All – whoever wins the most votes in the state, even if not a majority, gets all of the delegates Proportional The state's delegates are divided up among the candidates, in proportion to their percentage of the vote
Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaigned for the nomination of their party in a series of primary elections and caucus events.
Unlike the Democratic Party, which mandates a proportional representation for delegate selection, the Republican Party has no such limitation. For states with primaries, some states choose to use the "winner-take-all" method to allocate delegates within a state, while others do winner-take-all within a specific congressional district, and still others use the proportional process. Unlike the Democratic Party, state party by-laws determine whether each delegate is pledged and for how long the delegate is pledged.
In caucus states, most state parties use a two pronged process. A straw poll, often called a presidential preference poll, is conducted of the attendees at the caucus. The results are released to the media and published on the state party website. Delegates are then elected to the county conventions. It is at the county conventions that delegates are elected to state conventions, and from the state convention to the national convention. At each level, delegates may be bound or unbound to a candidate. If unbound, delegates are not obligated to follow the results of the presidential preference poll. Thus, all estimates of delegates from caucus states are dependent on state party by-laws.
Campaign
2007 With Vice President Dick Cheney choosing not to seek the nomination, making this election the first time since 1952 that neither the current President nor Vice President was a candidate, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ruling herself out, the race for the 2008 presidential nomination was wide open. It officially began in March 2006 when John H. Cox became the first candidate to enter the 2008 race. The Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress and President Bush's unpopularity were strong issues for the GOP field. At the beginning of 2007, the announced Republican field was former Governor of Wisconsin and Cabinet member Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore, and Senator of Kansas Sam Brownback. Former senator of Virginia George Allen was considered a top contender until his loss in the midterm elections. He announced on December 10, 2006, that he would not seek the 2008 nomination. In early January former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney announced he was forming an exploratory committee. Afterwards several others announced they were running, including U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, U.S. Senator John McCain, U.S. Congressman Duncan Hunter, and U.S. Congressman Tom Tancredo. A poll released in early February had Giuliani leading with 32% and John McCain second with 18%. By early March, Giuliani had become the frontrunner. Alan Keyes and former Senator and actor Fred Thompson entered the race later in September.
The first to drop out of the race was former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore in July. After that Tommy Thompson also dropped out in August after finishing sixth in the Ames Iowa straw poll. Then pro-life advocate Sam Brownback dropped out of the race in October. In December, staunch illegal-immigration opponent Tom Tancredo and businessman John H. Cox also left the race.
Iowa and New Hampshire
On January 3, 2008, the Iowa caucuses began. The final averaged polling results from Real Clear Politics showed Mike Huckabee at 30%, Romney at 27%, McCain and Thompson tied at 12%, Paul at 7%, and Giuliani at 6%. Among those surveyed in Exit Polling data, 45% cited themselves as very conservative and voted for Huckabee 35% to Romney's 23% and Thompson's 22%. Among those who called themselves "somewhat conservative" (43%), Huckabee won 34% to Romney's 27% and McCain's 18%.
Final Results showed Huckabee swept much of the state with the exception of the western and eastern portions of the state which included Davenport, Cedar Rapids, as well as Sioux City. Romney swept the eastern and western portions of the state and Paul took one southern county. The final results in Iowa were Huckabee with 34%, Romney with 25%, Thompson and McCain each with 13%, Paul with 10% and Giuliani with 4%.
In the New Hampshire Primary, both McCain and Romney had gambled much on the state. McCain had staked much on his grassroots efforts in the state he won in 2000, as well as the state with one of the most independent voting blocks which was McCain's strong suit. Romney, coming from neighboring Massachusetts was known by many in New Hampshire and even owned a home in the state of New Hampshire. Pre-Primary polling showed McCain with a slight edge (32–28%) with Huckabee leading Giuliani for third (12–9%).
On Primary night, McCain won 37–32% and Huckabee beat Giuliani for third 11–9%. After the results, Huckabee decided to focus on the South Carolina primary, while both McCain and Romney went to Michigan where polls showed a competitive race between the two.
Michigan With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire – and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus – the January 15 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third.McCain, Romney in tight Michigan race Reuters, Jan. 12, 2008Keith Naughton, Who Does Detroit Like in '08? Newsweek.com, Jan. 11, 2008 Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races.Michigan could be key to Republican Presidential nomination AFP, Jan. 9, 2008Dick Polman, Republican presidential race is no clearer after New Hampshire Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 9, 2008 Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination.Ryan Mauro, The New Hampshire Surprise: Edwards Makes Clinton the Front-Runner Global Politician, Jan. 10, 2008 McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win, but still had $3.5 million in bank debt.